[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 20N W
OF 94.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO
23N92W TO 18N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF
94W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY 1200 UTC
TODAY. WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N07W TO 03N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM S OF THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 170 NM N OF IT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS TO THE NW AND NE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND THE
EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT SUPPORTS STORM TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH IFR
PROBABILITIES OF FOG. ACCORDING TO THIS GOES-13 PRODUCT...FOG
EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL START TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DOMINATING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIR THAT PROVIDES OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SW TO 30N77W TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 25W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER ATLC CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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