[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 11 AND
16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 1800
UTC SAT MAR 07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N
AND W OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W TO 19N96W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1200 UTC SAT MAR
07. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 4N8W TO 2N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N18W TO 2S24W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4S BETWEEN 22W-
27W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 33N100W. AS OF
2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
30N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N94W TO THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE
IS S OF 26N AND W OF COLD FRONT. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH IFR CONDITIONS W OF FRONT WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST W OF FRONT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE
GALE IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE DOTS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 78W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND FLORIDA. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 37W-48W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N42W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 34N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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