[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC WED. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 8N18W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5S25W TO 2S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6S BETWEEN 20W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY 1014 MB
LOW IS JUST INLAND OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. PATCHY FOG IS OVER
THE NW GULF TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF BY THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC WED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS AND N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE W AND SPREAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC FROM 31N57W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N23W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S BETWEEN 43W-58W MOVING W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N43W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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