[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W...FROM 07S TO 02N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W AND FROM 02S TO 04N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
THE NE CONUS COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 95W...HIGHEST ON THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WHERE THERE IS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
23N95W TO 20N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
ALONG 24N96W SW TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE NE TO E FLOW SUPPORT
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
25N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG
PROBABILITIES W OF 94W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W.
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF REPORT FOG CONDITIONS N OF 27N W OF
89W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
AND ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...MONA
PASSAGE...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER ISLAND TONIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM
30N66W SW TO 27N72W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY
A 1038 MB CENTER NEAR 34N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SUNDAY MORNING
...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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