[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AN INVERTED-V
SHAPE IS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE
22N94W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU 11N13W TO 9N21W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W
TO 6N34W 7N37W 5N44W...AND 5N52W NEAR THE COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE...RAINSHOWERS...ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD FROM 83W WESTWARD...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM
89W WESTWARD. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N SOUTHWARD TO HONDURAS FROM 85W WESTWARD
TO THE COAST OF BELIZE. ISOLATED MODERATE OFF THE COAST OF
EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND...FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA TO
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN CLUSTERS...FROM 30N81W TO 29N83W
TO 30N87W TO 30N90W...AND OFF THE COAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST/ THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF THE 22N93W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

MORE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND WESTERN CUBA
ALONG 82W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N73W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE OVERALL AND BROADER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BECOMES WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO
BECOMING WESTERLY AS IT EVENTUALLY REACHES THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 83W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 24N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N73W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT HAS BEEN FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 30N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND THE COAST OF THE U.S.A.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 69W AND THE COAST OF THE U.S.A.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N36W TO
25N45W TO 22N55W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO
27N27W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N47W...TO 26N66W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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