[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL PULSE
AGAIN THU EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N41W TO 7N43W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE A LARGE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC HAS MOVED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
AND EXTENDS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N75W TO
10N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 19N16W THEN INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W TO 8N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N37W 4N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 17W-19W AND FROM 5N-7N W OF
50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
TALLAHASSEE COVERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE N
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
85W-88W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TAMPA TO THE
ALABAMA BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W GULF
FROM 19N-28N W OF 95W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE SW GULF.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
COVERING THE GULF WITH A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH W OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF FRI
AND THE SE GULF SAT. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF THU BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE FRI IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N88W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND EXTENDS N INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
CIEGO DE AVILA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE
BETWEEN 67W-71W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WED. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED AND THE SW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRI. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI AND THEN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W REMAIN
CLEAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLAND DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LINGERING MOISTURE. THE
UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WED WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY THU. ONLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME FRI INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA/NE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE W ATLC W OF 78W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N71W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N72W TO 22N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 26N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-74W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC BASIN AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 28N55W
EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 25N/26N
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ATLC THROUGH SUN. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WED AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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