[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE
WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N34W TO 8N36W
MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N56W TO 8N55W
MOVING W-NW 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N E OF THE WAVE
TO 52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A
LINE FROM THE WAVE NEAR 9N55W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD.

TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N67W
ACROSS THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO NEAR
11N71W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THE E CARIBBEAN AND A PORTION OF THE SW ATLC. WAVE IS ALSO
INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 62W-70W
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF LINE FROM SAINT VINCENT IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 17N71W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN W CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N19W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N28W 5N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 18W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS
ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS
LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE CHARLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER
FEATURES IS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-27N E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND N OF 27N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
UPPER FEATURES ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE THE FAR W GULF AND COUPLED
WITH THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATE CLUSTERS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N93W
TO 26N95W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE W GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA OVER THE GULF WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N84W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NE AND
N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SHIFT S INTO THE E/CENTRAL
GULF FRI. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND INTO THE SE GULF
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
N BELIZE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND EXTENDS N INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
CIEGO DE AVILA WHILE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 82W. THE UPPER
LOW N OF HISPANIOLA COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING THE ACTIVITY IN THE E
CARIBBEAN/LESSER ANTILLES. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. NOAA/NESDIS
AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED NIGHT.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 71W REMAIN
CLEAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND.
THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ISLAND WILL LINGER THROUGH THU BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND WED WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY THU. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RESUME FRI INTO SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE
AVILA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN NE TO BEYOND 30N68W.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N70W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
62W-70W. A BROAD E/W SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN AND
IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 28N47W EXTENDING ACROSS N
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 24N/25N AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH
SAT. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SW ATLC TODAY REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED
AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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