[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.2N 96.0W AT 16/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 26 NM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS AND ABOUT 91 NM SSW OF
GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 93W-97W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N36W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE SHOWS UP BEST IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
THE SIGNATURE NOTED BETWEEN 33W-41W AMIDST GENERALLY EASTERLY
700 MB FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL
WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PROVIDING A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
RESULTING IN A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 50W-57W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 16N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES
SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 57W-67W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 60W-68W.
FARTHER WEST...AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 63W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 18N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH THE STRONGEST
850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATED S OF 17N
BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 88W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W TO
10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 03N42W TO 04N49W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 10W-19W...FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 24W-29W...AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 37W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE TROPICAL STORM BILL INFLUENCES THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF
THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 87W OUTSIDE OF THE
CORE WIND FIELD OF BILL...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 24N81W. BILL IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND MAKE LANDFALL TUESDAY.
WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ACROSS MARINE AREAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND
EXTEND ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS GENERALLY W OF 80W ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN...FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MORNING PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRYING TREND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADD IN LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 86W AND TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE LEVELS. TO THE EAST OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING AS THE PRIMARY
IMPACT. STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W/65W IMPACTS THE SE CARIBBEAN BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 17N E OF 67W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND CLEAR
SKIES NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
ISLAND TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N75W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING. THE ONLY FEATURE CREEPING CLOSE TO THE
DISCUSSION BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W
TO 32N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N
BETWEEN 45W-65W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS
WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net