[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 151631
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to report on results of the
aircraft reconnaissance mission.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico all
morning.  Data from the mission indicate that the circulation
is highly elongated and lacks a well-defined center.  Therefore the
system is not a tropical cyclone and advisories are not being
initiated at this time.  However, the low still has the potential to
become a tropical storm at any time before it reaches the Texas
coast sometime tomorrow.

The aircraft data do indicate that the system is producing winds of
45 mph or so to the east of the elongated trough axis, and interests
in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme
southwestern Louisiana, Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also
likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin
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