[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N39W TO 11N39W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700
MB TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-42W AND A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 07N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N57W TO 11N54W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE MIRRORS A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT...WITH ENHANCEMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM A MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PROPAGATING WAVE
ENERGY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
51W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 17N85W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE AND ITS MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 09N96W. THE WAVE IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION SW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
13N19W TO 04N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 02N30W TO 03N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-
11N BETWEEN 14W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
09N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. THIS
ACTIVITY LIES TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TUXPAN. OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
RIDGE. GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
EXTENDING AN AXIS SW OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
REGION ALSO EXHIBITS MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME LOCALLY
STRONG...FROM 09N-22N BETWEEN 76W-85W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW IS VERY
DRY AND PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED...PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
29N77W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N76W.
FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 34N62W THAT SUPPORTS A COLLOCATED 1015 MB SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 31N69W. THE
TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
30N61W SW TO 26N70W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FINALLY...A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N26W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N28W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 28N38W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 31N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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