[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
27W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
LOW MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDING WITH A
REGION OF DRY AIR AND DUST DEPICTED BY METEOSAT IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE REGION OF THE
ITCZ FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
44W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHERN REGION AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N W OF 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS NEAR 66W EXTENDING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 77W
MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS S OF 13N BEING
SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W TO 06N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 05N29W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 04N40W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S
SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE
JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER
GULF. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 30N84W TO 27N82W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...A 1015
MB HIGH IS LOCATED ON THE NW BASIN NEAR 28N92W PROVIDING
VARIABLE WIND OF 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N W OF 90W. E TO NE WIND FLOW
OF 5 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORMER SURFACE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CUBA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD S-SW TO A BASE JUST N
OF HONDURAS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND
82W. OTHERWISE...TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN.
SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TRADES OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 71.5W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST AND THE TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THIS REGION AND A ZONE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S
SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE
JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
25N74W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 30N70W AND SW
TO 22N77W. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A RIDGE CENTERED NE
OF HISPANIOLA GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 76W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N44W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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