[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. THIS FEATURE
IS NOTED IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ-RELATED ISOLATED MODERATE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N16W
AND 6N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N22W TO 2N29W 2N38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 10N20W 5N17W 3N9W...TO 3N ALONG
THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPAN THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ABOUT 480 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N...BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N
BETWEEN 74W AND 83W...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N88W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KHQI AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN MARIANNA FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 18N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W...
INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ALONG THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...FROM 8N AT PANAMA TO 13N JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND IN WESTERN NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND TO
THE SOUTH OF PANAMA FROM 5N NORTHWARD FROM 80W EASTWARD...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 3N79W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS CENTRAL AMERICA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN
70W AND 80W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE PRESENT IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE...FIRST WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN THEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT 18 HOURS...BUT THEN IT WILL DISAPPEAR AFTER
THAT MOMENT. HISPANIOLA WILL END UP IN AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD...
FROM A 25N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
480 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG
21N57W 19N58W 18N61W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG
25N60W 22N60W 20N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 31N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
25N26W TO 19N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD
FROM 30W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N41W TO 13N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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