[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 12N-4N MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
23W-26W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 10N-3N MOVING W
10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N20W.
THE ITCZ IS FROM 8N23W TO 5N35W TO 2N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. STRONG DRIER AIR
WITH SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEARLY
EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
WEAK SURFACE PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS 40-50 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL W-NW WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE AND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A
1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 20N84W TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS. THE
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THU.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THU. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N61W TO 15N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-17N BETWEEN 53W-60W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 23N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 11N22W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 65W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS JUST N OF THE
AREA NEAR 34N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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