[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND
58W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W...FROM 14N IN
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AFRICA...AND IT STOPS NEAR
12N16W IN NORTHWESTERN GUINEA-BISSAU. THE ITCZ IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N23W TO 6N30W TO 5N39W AND 1N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 9W AND 16W...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
8N23W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 32W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...NEARLY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ABOUT 360 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS IS WITHIN 720 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...COVERING
MUCH OF FLORIDA...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KXIH AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN TEXAS FROM BAY
CITY TO SUGARLAND. LIGHT RAIN AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. HEAVY RAIN IS
BEING OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO
NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TOWARD THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM CUBA TO 28N
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W...FROM 14N IN
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 14N87W IN SOUTHERN
HONDURAS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND INTO THE
COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N79W. NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W AT 03/0215 UTC. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING COMPARATIVELY DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE BROAD NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN HAVANA
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO
PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND 26N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD
ABOUT 250 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ABOUT 75 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD...
FROM A 30N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
500 NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 24N59W 18N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 18N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W
AND 62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD...
FROM A 33N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH IS ABOUT
1300 NM TO 1400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 30N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N21W
23N30W 19N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 35N45W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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