[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR
38.9N 64.9W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL
MODERATE FROM 39N-43N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A NE TO NNE MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AND
CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND
DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO ISOLATED MODERATE MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N41W TO 08N42W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW
EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR ALSO PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N89W TO 12N90W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 89W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
07N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N26W AND CONTINUES THROUGH
06N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM N
AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MAINLY E OF 15W AND NEAR THE
ITCZ FROM 03N-12N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER TEXAS WITH THE
S PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N91W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN. PLEASE REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W. WITH THESE...A
DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS LOW CENTER SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-81W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 17N
BETWEEN 72W-77W WHERE A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE
MOVING W INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE W INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY THE
INTERACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE E OF 80W SUPPORT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE SW
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 26N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED W OF 66W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 33N35W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN HENCE DECREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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