[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311838
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 12 TO 20 FT WITH NW SWELL. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
10 TO 13 FT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY.
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N10W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
1N30W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W...AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF
FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S
GULF. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE TO N FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON SUN NIGHT FOR THE A NEW COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE N COAST OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE HISPANIOLA.
MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR N OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS OVER THE AREA WITH VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO
BE ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. ALSO
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SEE ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER
THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 28N66W TO THE
N BAHAMAS AT 25N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W MOVING
E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR AN AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W N OF 24N SUPPORTING THE
FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 32W-34W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH
THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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