[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-02N BETWEEN 29W-
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE COVERS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 33N82W AND 44N75W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY
E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A
NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE
TRADES DOMINATE THE AREA E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
21N77W TO 35N63W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 36N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 55W-69W. TO THE E...THE REFLECTION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 25N39W TO 21N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-
24N BETWEEN 34W-38W. SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
39N29W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
EXCEPT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E
ATLANTIC...WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT THIS MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 40W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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