[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

2WZSTROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S AND 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND
49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. W TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT
ARE OVER THE NW BASIN...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE
SW BASIN...AND NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS FL WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE TX/LA
COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N75W. THE
FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AT 17N75W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR
THE PANAMA COAST AT 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE
NW OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO 16N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE AND STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
HAITI AT CAP HATIEN NEAR 20N72W TO CHARDONNIERES NEAR 18N74W AND
OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM CABRERA NEAR 20N70W
TO PEDEMALES NEAR 18N72W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONGOING ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ISLAND FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR
24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TO 31N61W TO
29N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO HAITI NEAR
20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A WESTWARD
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N37W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 35W TO 39W. 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS THE E ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE E OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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