[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 27N WEST OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCLUDING JUST OFF THE N FL
COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N35W TO 3N43W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND
42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN
09W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND TX WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN US. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FL
AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF FROM 29N83W TO 25N97W. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NW
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. W WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE SE OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC AND S FL NEAR 27N82W AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 24N87W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC...CUBA...AND NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN ON TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W TO 20N81W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 14N84W. SHOWERS ARE S OF 16N AND OVER THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A
SMALL AREA OF WINDS NEAR 25 KT OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL
BE NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI BY TUESDAY EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW
TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO 31N78W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
THE US COAST...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 29N68W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO 25N74W TO THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST
NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF
THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH...FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 30N42W TO
21N44W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 21N
BETWEEN 28W AND 37W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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