[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N W
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG
30N87W TO 18N94W. GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA UNTIL
TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT N OF 29N W OF 76W IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
2N26W TO 3N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO
BEYOND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N
OF 26N. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF. SEE ABOVE. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. 10-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E
OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER TEXAS...WHILE BROAD RIDGING WITH SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE
TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL E OF FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT DUE TO MOIST TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REACHED THE
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 29N W OF 80W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 29N60W TO
27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO
24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN
42W-48W. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N23W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 21N BETWEEN 12W-28W TO INCLUDE OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N42W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 25N80W WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF 28N
WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT FROM 32N41W TO
23N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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