[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200002 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W...TO
7N17W AND 6N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N20W TO 2N30W 2N40W
AND 1N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO
27N66W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 27N66W AND 23N71W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
23N71W...TO 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 23N88W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO
23N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 61W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W
WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.12 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N69W...TO
A 1023 MB NORTH FLORIDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N83W...TO 27N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KXIH...KSPR...AND KIPN.

KGVX AND KGUL WERE REPORTING CLEARING SKIES DURING THE LAST
OBSERVATION.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.17 IN
CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N76W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH WESTERN
PANAMA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...AND BEYOND
8N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ONE CELL OF STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W
AND 83W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
NICARAGUA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
PUERTO RICO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N50W AND 25N53W...
AND TO 23N60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N60W
TO 21N65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N39W...TO
27N38W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N35W...TO 20N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS INLAND IN AFRICA IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ALGERIA
TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 26N17W AND
28N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N33W TO 28N35W AND 19N37W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND THE 32N50W
23N60W STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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