[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
9 FEET TO 12 FEET EXIST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS
TO 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA...NOT REACHING THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W...TO 4N20W 2N30W 1N35W 2N40W...TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 9N13W 10N20W 4N30W 4N40W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST...FROM 25N97W TO 22N96W TO 20N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 88W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO
THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL ICAO PLATFORM
SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING SITES. ICAO STATION KEHC IS
REPORTING FAIR SKIES. PLATFORM SITES KCRH...KEIR...AND KSPR ARE
REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AT STATIONS KMIS...KATP...AND KDLP HAVE DISAPPEARED FOR
THE MOMENT IN THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION COVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
REST OF TEXAS...HEADING TOWARD HOUSTON. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE REACHING THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE REST OF
SOUTHERN/ COASTAL LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD.
A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT PUNTA GORDA AND
NAPLES. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS THAT WERE OBSERVED IN THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA IN EARLIER OBSERVATIONS HAVE
DISAPPEARED FOR THE MOMENT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 19N
NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 19N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALSO IS FROM 70W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE IS ALONG 17N65W...TO
JAMAICA...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.04
IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 3N80W AND
BEYOND 5N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF 700 MB
SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW...ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM 18N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 61W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...LIGHT RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
AT SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE
ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AT THE START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS TO 12 HOURS.
THAT SCENARIO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT TWO INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE
FROM EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W
27N64W 20N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 27N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
31N54W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N54W TO 27N62W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES IS...0.03 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 30N60W 22N71W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W...AND FROM
27N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. THIS SCENARIO IS OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE...THAT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE SURFACE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 18N28W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 17N42W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
11N43W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
50W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N52W 27N62W
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net