[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND SW TO 01S22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA IS PROVIDING NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
TX COAST NEAR 27N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. WINDS
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH ARE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLIES TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO S FL NEAR FT LAUDERDALE TO THE
GULF NEAR 25N82 TO 22N91W. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST E OF 91W...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND 88W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SE GULF WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST E OF CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDES
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 15N84W TO
11N62W. THIS INCLUDES THE GULF OF HONDURAS...JAMAICA...PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND...SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS A FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW AND INTO OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N64W
TO 28N75W TO THE FL COAST NEAR 26N80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS COMBINING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E
GULF...ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND INTO THE ATLC WITHIN 175 NM NW OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF
32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N MOROCCO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING OFF THE COAST OF N AND CENTRAL FL INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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