[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1800 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 0600
UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 1S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 3S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 15-25 KT NE
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 SW WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. MOST OF
THE GULF N OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40'S AND 50'S...
WHILE MIAMI FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA AS OF 0600 UTC TONIGHT.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HAITI...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ADVECTING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE E. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
PASSING SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT...WHILE 15-
20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A LARGE 1039 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.
A GALE IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N140W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W THROUGH THE N
BAHAMAS TO W CUBA AT 23N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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