[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END AT
1200 UTC. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO RESUME AT 0600 UTC THU AND END
AGAIN AT 0000 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR E ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR WITH A
DEVELOPING GALE IN THE AREAS OF TARFAYA AND CANARIAS. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE AREA OF MADIERA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLANTIC...
A GALE IS EXPECTED ON THU FEB 26 0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 76W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END ON THU FEB 26 1800 UTC. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4S-
5N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
25N86W TO THE WESTERN GULF AT 25N93W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 10-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. PATCHY FOG IS REPORTED AT KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN
LIFT NW AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT
TO THE E-SE AS A COLD FRONT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SE GULF THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST
TO PULSE ON AND OFF OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-78W N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1041 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
AZORES AT 39N19W. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
24N35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BE OVER N FLORIDA. A GALE IS
FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER FRONT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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