[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS
GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE E-NE...
REACHING THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM 31N80W TO 30N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
06N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN NORTH ATLC. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W INTO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR
25N91W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN SHALLOW...CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT ALSO REMAINS LIMITED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL. GIVEN THE OVERALL
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS S-SE RETURN
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY...
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH THE FORMED
LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVING E-NE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW FROM THE LOW INTRODUCING A
STRONGER ROUND OF N-NW WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THESE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FILTER TO THE SURFACE
WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE PULSING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE...THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR WITH PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TRADES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA REMAIN FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE NOSES SW ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WESTERN NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W. THE FRONT EXTENDS W-SW TO
29N75W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W-66W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 28N75W TO 25N80W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA WILL DEVELOP FURTHER OFF THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
LOW EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC EARLY THURSDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...GALE FORCE SW
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THIS TIME WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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