[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 71W
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. CONUS LATER
TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE
MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 08N13W SW TO 01S21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01S21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03S31W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N91W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING VARIABLE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT N OF 27N E
OF 94W WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS OF 15
KT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS AND
ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN GULF. SHALLOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG WITH THE UPPER MOISTURE ENHANCE SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY SUNDAY. A NEW
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N-NE GULF LATER TODAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE  FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN...BEING HIGHEST OVER THE SW BASIN...MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO WHERE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ON THE NE CARIBBEAN ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N62W TO 18N67W
THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE W OF 74W INCREASING
TO 35 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATING THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF 74W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM
ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ON THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. RAINFALL ACTIVITY
IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N62W TO
18N67W THAT WILL DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW
N ATLC WITH TAIL BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
TUESDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AND WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE W
ATLC AND PART OF THE CENTRAL BASIN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TWO
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTS...ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N62W TO
26N68W AND A SECOND BOUNDARY FROM 30N46W SW TO 23N55W. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N62W TO 18N67W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT E-SE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TUESDAY MORNING.
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEW COLD FRONT TO COME OFF THE SE CONUS LATER TODAY. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 17N BEING ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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