[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN
71W AND 79W TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF AREA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY LATE SUN
NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE
BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME SUN
NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 00N20W TO 01S30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
01N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-07N
BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N94W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF AND BE VOID OF CONVECTION OR
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NE HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 65W-70W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS... HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS SW FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER N COLOMBIA DUE TO A LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE ISLAND...HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LINGERING SHALLOW
MOISTURE DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 26N73W.
ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N45W TO 21N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC
STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N29W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE W ATLANTIC VOID OF CONVECTION OR SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS WITH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. FINALLY...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE W ATLC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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