[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A DEEPENING LOW ANALYZED AT 986 MB CENTERED NEAR 35N67W EXTENDS
INFLUENCE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-
80W. WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTEND
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 29N
BETWEEN 71W-76W...AS WELL AS N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS
AREA WILL TRANSLATE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE COMPLEX
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES E-NE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N20W TO 01N30W TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 09W-21W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A VERY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DUE TO COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE BASIN IS
PROVIDING WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE. E TO NE WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF. E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
COVER THE WESTERN GULF. RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NW STARTING THURSDAY AND WILL DOMINATE
THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED
ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE FRONTS EXTEND
FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
WESTERNMOST FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 18N83W. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT CROSSES THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W AND EXTENDS TO 15N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONTS. NW WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE EASTERNMOST
FRONT. SE TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE LATER TONIGHT.
THE PORTIONS OF THE FRONTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH IS
PROVIDING MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
E ACROSS HAITI THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 36N65W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AND LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FOCUSED ON A 986 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N67W. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTEND INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO
20N74W...AND THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT FROM 32N60W TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TO 27N73W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WESTERN FRONT ARE
DENOTED BY SURGES OF WINDS AND ARE MAINLY FREE OF CONVECTION.
THE EASTERN FRONT REPRESENTS THE SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
WESTERLIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE
WESTERNMOST FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE EASTERNMOST FRONT. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A 1012
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N34W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM THE LOW TO 23N42W AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 26N30W TO
20N36W TO 19N43W. THIS SYSTEM IS LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO
MAINLY SHALLOW SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MERGE INTO ONE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH E OF
THE FRONT MOVING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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