[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEVELOP FURTHER
AS IT MOVES N OF 30N ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
BY 11/0600 UTC WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N21W TO 03N45W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 13W AND
26W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 33W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAROLINAS S-SW TO A BASE OVER THE SE
GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A
1006 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
27N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N81W
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
IS LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...AS THE GULF CONTINUES
TO REMAIN STABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND WILL
INTRODUCE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE
MEXICO NEAR 25N100W THAT IS PROVIDING THE DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE TO THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST BY
LATE TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND INFLUENCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF BY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT
THE SURFACE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT EXTENDS
FRONTAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...
INCLUDING INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAILS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 17N E OF 73W. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS INTO TUESDAY...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS
CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION.

...HISPANIOLA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
HISPANIOLA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT
SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND
80W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N38W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N40W TO 22N50W AND BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 20N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N TO
33N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 26N. OTHERWISE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF
BERMUDA NEAR 33N54W AND A WEAKENING 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 20N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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