[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 02N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01S50W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 0N TO 04N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
200 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE SW N
ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF
E OF 86W. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINING
BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE THE NW GULF ON
MONDAY MORNING. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N87W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 24N87W...ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. EXCEPT  S OF 27N BETWEEN 86W TO 90W...SE TO S WIND FLOW
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF
95W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE GULF WILL DRIFT N-NE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND EXIT THE BASIN WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC MONSOON REGION INTO THE BASIN. PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...THUS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 18N85W TO COASTAL
WATERS OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N82W AND ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING THE TROUGH TO MOVE
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EARLY WED MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE ALOFT BEING ADVECTED FROM THE MONSOON REGION IN THE
EPAC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF A
STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N70W
COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 24N W OF 56W. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N47W SW TO 22N60W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 24N54W TO
18N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS N OF 13N W OF 32W
BEING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH TO DRIFT S-SE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR
28N22W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO 19N23W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND NORTHERN AFRICA SW TO 21N17W TO
15N23W. NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net