[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 02N33W TO 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 34W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE OVER NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WITH THESE...A SLIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS REMAINING S OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED FROM 26N85W TO 22N86W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGHS TO MOVE E
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON
MONDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO E CUBA WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AND EXTENDS FROM 20N76W TO 18N84W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE
NE WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE SHEAR LINE. SLIGHT TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS IS
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT TO
HISPANIOLA IS CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AND THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 17N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N...E OF 63W. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE. THE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ENTER
THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER E CUBA IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
E ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND N OF THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N76W SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO
24N61W TO 20N76W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 26N54W TO 22N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 42W-54W. A
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N45W. A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N30W EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 26N25W TO 22N28W TO 18N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 17N-26W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
FLOW IS DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC TO MOVE E. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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