[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...COLD FRONT IS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FROM 31N79W TO
29N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 65W. SEA
HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION RANGE
FROM 10 TO 14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING.
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF
21N W OF 95W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
TUESDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 31W-36W...AND FROM 1S-
3N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
28N80W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AT 22N94W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AT
19N96W. A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE.
20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 97W-100W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE FRONT.
PRESENTLY AIR TEMPERATURES DIFFER FROM N FLORIDA TO S FLORIDA BY
25 DEGREES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF
WITH WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE N
OF A LINE FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 24N90W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO
EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 19N60W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 19N68W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF FRONT. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
DISSIPATE.

HISPANIOLA...

RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS
MOSTLY OVER SE HISPANIOLA AND S OF THE ISLAND. THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM
31N77W TO 28N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO
65W. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N57W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO
21N50W TO 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF FRONT FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 33W-40W. FURTHER E...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
27N34W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N23W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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