[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING
PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND FROM 10.5N TO 11N E OF 76W.
SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N01W TO 03N20W TO 02N30W TO 01N40W
TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 14W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE SE PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL FL TO THE W
GULF NEAR 28N94W SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK
CONVECTION FREE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W.
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N-
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY FREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WEST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF HISPANIOLA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N61W
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS W OF
65W...AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS E OF 65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 09N51W TO 05N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
OBSERVED AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AZORES SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM THE
NORTH FROM 31N37W TO 31N45W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N29W TO 27N36W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS
TIME WITH THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...W TO SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE N OF
THE COLD FRONT TO 32N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC S OF 31N WITH STRONG
WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO
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