[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180655 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015

CORRECTED FOR DATE AND TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N80W 20N93W.
EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 96W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...

...FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES
WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS
THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED IRVING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N20W 05N25W 04N32W 03N37W...TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A...THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
NEAR 30N84W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AT THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 27N84W 22N88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 27N84W
22N88W LINE.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA AT...APALACHICOLA
IFR CONDITIONS AT...TALLAHASSEE...AT ST. PETERSBURG AND
CLEARWATER. MVFR CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA AT...PERRY AND
BROOKSVILLE.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N69W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N74W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO EASTERN PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM 21N79W AT THE COAST OF CUBA TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN PATCHES OF CLOUDS THAT
ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...
MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS ALONG 61W IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL
MOVE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND WEAKEN AS AN ORGANIZED CENTER
DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL AT
700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-
LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
26N42W AND 21N45W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N40W
25N50W 25N57W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 25N57W TO
25N64W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N29W 24N36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W
20N38W 14N49W 14N60W 30N80W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE 32N32W 25N64W COLD FRONT BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. A SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N56W TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OF GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND GREAT ABACO...TO 24N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N05W TO 28N09W 26N16W 26N25W...TO
20N50W...AND TO 28N74W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT
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