[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS MAINLY E OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE NE ACROSS
THE GULF BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW
GULF ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 94W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE BASIN AS A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WITH THIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
APPROACH THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING
ITS TROUGH S ACROSS E CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING ITS
TROUGH S ACROSS E CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEREFORE...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
EXTENDS TO 29N53W. S OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY S OF 26N BETWEEN 69W-76W. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N76W TO
23N76W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N68W TO
24N58W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO
24N45W TO 32N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 27N29W TO 31N22W WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N27W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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