[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO
26N59W. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SURROUNDING THE LOW. THE LARGEST AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER OF THE SW
SEMICIRCLE. THE OTHER AREA OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IS
IN THE VICINITY OF 30N45W AS A SMALL SWATH OF SW WINDS EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W TO
06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO 04N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 21W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW GULF N-NE TO OVER
THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE INFLUENCES THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL
FRESH E-SE WINDS E OF 90W AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG S-SE WINDS W OF 90W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAILING THEREAFTER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NW AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A
RELATIVELY VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND
JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 20N...HOWEVER A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND POSITION ITSELF
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BY MONDAY PLACING HISPANIOLA
WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 74W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N74W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 68W-75W.
FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N44W THAT SUPPORTS A SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE FORCE 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N47W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LIES FROM 32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 26N59W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 23N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N-30N
BETWEEN 56W-69W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
AREA...ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N27W TO 27N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF
27N BETWEEN 21W-38W. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N40W THAT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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