[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 7N13W ALONG 5N18W 5N26W 3N32W 5N40W
TO 5N45W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W
GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF S TO SE SURFACE
FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 22N81W THEN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE GULF E OF
92W...THUS FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE W GULF AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND W CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 16N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N74W ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC
20N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-86W. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N74W ACROSS HAITI ALONG 20N73W
TO 24N68W. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ISLAND W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER THE ISLAND STARTING SAT NIGHT WITH
AN UPPER LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR
31N80W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS JUST NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W ALONG 26N79W OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W ALONG 29N78W
26N78W TO 24N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N68W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 66W-76W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N54W ALONG 27N58W 25N65W TO 23N71W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. A SECOND REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N32W ALONG 28N40W TO 31N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF THE ABOVE COLD
FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N21W AND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N46W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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