[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N06W TO 04N11W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N11W TO
04N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N36W TO 04N36W. THE
ITCZ RESUMES W OF THIS TROUGH FROM 04N37W TO 00N47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
AXIS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO A BROAD BASE N OF
WESTERN CUBA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W-SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF
86W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN W OF 88W. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER E ALABAMA
NEAR 33N86W. WITH THIS...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE N GULF WHILE MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS WERE NOTED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF MAINLY S OF 23N. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER
REGIME TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN CUBA
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N87W. A SURFACE
TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO THE NE HONDURAS COAST
NEAR 17N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES N OF 20N AND W OF
80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS AS USUAL ANTICIPATED
OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THESE CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WHICH IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 28N75W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 31N70W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THESE
BOUNDARIES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 70W AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS...BAHAMAS...AND CUBA. TO THE
E...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION.
THESE BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N58W
TO 30N55W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N49W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N50W AND A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED N
OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N14W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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