[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
FROM 30N67W W-SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO NW
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. NORTH OF THE AREA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER PENNSYLVANIA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE
CONUS TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT THUS SUPPORTING NE TO E GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 78W.
ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE FROM 10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W
...EXCEPT NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
NE CONUS MOVES E TO ATLC WATERS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N05E AND CONTINUES TO 02N01E
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 05N20W TO A 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 04N24W TO 04N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS WITH BASE
EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N67W
WSW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO NW HONDURAS NEAR
15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA EXTENDING AN AXIS S-SW TO COASTAL TEXAS THEN
SOUTHWARD TO A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STABLE CONDITIONS. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W WHILE MODERATE TO GENTLE NE
WINDS ARE W OF 90W. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN USA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS SUPPORTING NNE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT
SUPPORTED BY TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT EXTENDS TO THE SW BASIN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA TO COASTAL CENTRAL PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE W OF 80W. A MOIST AIRMASS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ITS COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ARE FROM 10.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W
...EXCEPT NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 11 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
PENNSYLVANIA MOVES E TO ATLC WATERS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A
MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY EXTENDING TO WESTERN HISPANIOLA AS THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES...STRENGHTEN AND REMAIN NEARLY-STATIONARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS WITH BASE
EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N67W
WSW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO NW HONDURAS NEAR
15N87W. NORTH OF THE AREA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SE CONUS TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT THUS SUPPORTING NE TO E GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST
WATERS N OF FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGE
FROM 10 TO 13 FT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N32W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 27N29W TO 18N35W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLC FROM 17N-31N E OF 26W DUE TO DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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