[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA BY 06/0000 UTC. THESE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE TO A
RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 05N17W TO 04N35W TO 01N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 07W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THE STRETCHES
ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 25N81W AS STATIONARY TO 23N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY
THEN EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY S
OF 26N E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING AN AXIS S-SW TO COASTAL TEXAS THEN
SOUTHWARD TO A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF WITH PRIMARY CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO BE A BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS DECK INDICATING RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE W OF 90W THIS EVENING. THIS
OVERALL WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 13N80W EXTENDING N-NE
TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 25N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W SOUTHWARD
INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
BETWEEN 78W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO THE SE
ALONG THE NICARAGUA TO PANAMA COAST FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 81W-
84W. ELSEWHERE...A NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 17N70W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 63W-72W.
OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS
GENERATING BROAD GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE
NOTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS
EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N70W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY
AND WEAKEN E OF 68W AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND THE
OVERALL DRYING TREND CONTINUES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N64W WESTWARD INTO A 1019 MB
LOW NEAR 29N76W THEN AS A COLD FRONT SW TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
GENERALLY FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 71W-80W...AND WITHIN 150 NM NORTH
OF THE FRONT E OF 71W. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS PERSIST AS A
STRONG RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N29W. FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N32W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N23W TO
27N24W. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 10N-
32N E OF 30W DUE TO DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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