[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A 1003 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 14N45W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
44W-48W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N48W TO 14N52W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W 20-25 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 26W-27W FROM
14N-20N MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 24W-27W INCLUDING THE W CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
21N16W ALONG 17N19W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 15N31W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
COVERING THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
BAHAMAS COVERING THE E GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW
GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
N OF 21N. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26W BETWEEN 90W-96W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER S FLORIDA...W
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE
IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E
CONUS OVER THE N GULF. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
GULF ON TUE AND WHERE IT WILL STALL AND MEANDER THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS ANCHORED OVER
S GUATEMALA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N72W EXTENDING
A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 15N80W THEN NW TO
20N85W. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 15N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF COZUMEL. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WILL PASS S OF PUERTO RICO TUE
AND S OF HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT AND WED. A 1003 MB LOW IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WED
NIGHT...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...HISPANIOLA...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS
OF DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF PUERTO RICO TUE THEN S OF
HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE
AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND
TUE EVENING SPREADING W ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W COVERING
THE AREA W OF 68W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 28N66W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N74W
TO 32N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N52W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF 27N
BETWEEN 47W-50W. MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATE BY A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH ABOUT 550 NM W-SW OF
THE AZORES. A 1003 MB LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY WED
NIGHT...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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