[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 60.5W AS OF 24/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF DOMINICA AND ABOUT 100 NM E-SE OF
GUADELOUPE MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-62W AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W
NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 24W FROM 11N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE AREA E
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. LATEST
VISIBLE/IR IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
14N22W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N25W TO A 1007 MB LOW
NEAR 14N41W TO 13N47W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW...NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N97W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLANTIC COVERS THE EASTERN HALF. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N-
26W BETWEEN 85W-94W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINLY E OF
83W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR 28N91W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TO BE THE TROPICAL STORM DANNY WHICH
CONTINUES MOVING W APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THIS TIME.
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY AIRMASS COVERING THE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N OF 18N AND W OF 74W WHERE MODERATE TO HIGH
MOIST AIRMASS PREVAILS. WITH THIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ACROSS SW HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF CUBA.
TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
PANAMA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 10N.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15 BETWEEN 72W-80W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR DANNY TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER SW HAITI AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT FOR MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE NOW TROPICAL STORM DANNY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN
AND APPROACHES THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS MOVING W APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WHILE A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG 39W. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THESE
FEATURES. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 25N73W TO 30N63W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. TO THE
E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 31N42W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N38W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT DANNY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE
WEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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