[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 56.7W AT 23/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 300 NM ESE OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 53W-57W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 19N33W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N33W. THE GYRE AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 31W-37W. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 15N86W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS NOTED BENEATH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 14N82W. AS A RESULT...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N17W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N33W TO 13N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO
06N47W TO 08N51W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-09N BETWEEN 14W-26W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 28N77W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW
GULF NEAR 21N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF FOCUSED FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
88W-93W...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY OCCURRING FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
82W-86W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PERSIST ACROSS
THE NE HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
28N88W...WITH MODERATE S-SE RETURN FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE GULF ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N82W...WHILE A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W. BOTH FEATURES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W S OF 14N
W OF 81W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF APPROACHING TROPICAL
STORM DANNY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT FROM LINGERING OVERNIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CLEAR SKIES LIE TO THE EAST...
HOWEVER SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE MONDAY
WHEN TROPICAL STORM DANNY APPROACHES FROM THE E-SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 28N77W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE EAST NEAR
32N66W. GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS PROVIDING AN
OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT W OF 70W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1012 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N70W AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW NE TO 29N63W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FROM
28N-33N BETWEEN 59W-64W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 42W-50W.
ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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