[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 55.3W AT 23/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 380 NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 17N30W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD LOW-LEVEL
MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N31W. THE GYRE AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 16N85W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS NOTED BENEATH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 14N82W. AS A RESULT...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 81W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
20N16W INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N31W TO 12N36W. ASIDE
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 13W-26W...
AND FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 29N78W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW
GULF NEAR 21N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF FOCUSED NEAR 25N90W
STRETCHING S-SW TO 22N92W...WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-83W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO
A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N89W...WITH MODERATE S-SE RETURN
FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N83W...WHILE A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N69W. BOTH FEATURES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W S OF 15N
W OF 81W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA.
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF APPROACHING
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOMEWHAT FROM LINGERING EARLIER
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. CLEAR SKIES LIE TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WHEN TROPICAL STORM DANNY APPROACHES FROM THE E-SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 29N78W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE EAST NEAR
31N65W. GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS PROVIDING AN
OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT W OF 70W...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM NEAR 28N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 24N80W. E OF 70W...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1009 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N68W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CURLED INTO THE
LOW FROM 26N70W TO 27N65W TO 32N61W TO 35N65W INTO THE LOW
ITSELF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 60W-68W. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N47W THAT
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
26N-34N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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