[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.1W
AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 37W-45W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS TCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N21W TO 09N22W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE
PAST 21 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER...METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 115 NM E-SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 07N61W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE
WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 15N21W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 13N24W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 12N36W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS W OF DANNY NEAR 11N45W TO 09N59W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
60W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 28W-
36W AND 44W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
NEAR 21N93W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS
LOUISIANA AFFECTING THE N GULF WATERS BETWEEN 89W-93W. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE GULF...PROVIDING AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE
FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 73W
GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 75W-83W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER E OF
73W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-77W WHERE MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE REPORTED. OVERT HE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE ISLAND SUPPORTING
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM DANNY WHICH
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...PLEASE SEE THE ABOVE SECTION FOR
DETAILS. A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 35N65W AND IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEARLY AT THAT SAME
POSITION. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 58W-79W.
ELSEWHERE...THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N53W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ASIDE FROM DANNY AND THE TROPICAL WAVES...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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