[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W/25W...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
09N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO
20N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W 09N30W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 09N40W TO 08N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO
08N BETWEEN 23W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. THIS IS THE SAME CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...NOW
COVERING THE AREA THAT IS FROM 24N SOUTHWARD FROM 84W WESTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS
BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 96W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST AND 97W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN
90W AND 92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN
85W AND LAND.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
ALONG 24N/25N.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS FROM 85W WESTWARD...AROUND THE 19N89W YUCATAN PENINSULA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
CURVES AWAY FROM THE 19N89W CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...TOWARD THE BASE
OF A 73W/74W TROUGH. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS AROUND HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. 800 MB TO 600 MB LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS AROUND
HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 19N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP
EVENTUALLY ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WIND ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS
WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECT VARIATIONS IN THE WIND DIRECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO
28N74W 25N76W. A SECOND SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
RIGHT BEHIND THE 32N69W 25N76W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W
AND 72W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 56W AND 57W.

AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N23W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
24N23W TO 25N33W AND 26N38W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N47W...TO
20N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N47W
CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N
BETWEEN 38W AND 62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THE 23N47W CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N28W
25N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N
BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
27N67W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...PASSING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
GULF COAST ALONG 24N/25N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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