[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W...FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS BETWEEN 28W AND
35W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE EARLIER LOW-LEVEL MONSOON
GYRE THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND NOW IT HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 24N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N49W 12N49W 09N47W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD
700 MB TROUGH THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS LOW-AMPLITUDE
ENERGY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA
NEAR 13N17W TO 13N23W 11N28W AND 10N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N36W TO 09N44W 08N48W 09N52W AND 09N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 06N12W 08N29W 06N40W 07N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STARTING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND MOVING WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N90W...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FLOW COVERS
THE AREA...IN MANY WAYS RELATED TO THE 27N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 80W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N63W 19N64W...ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THAT ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 27N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.20 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.18 IN BERMUDA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT
INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER MOVES INLAND IN HISPANIOLA...SPREADING CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. -
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N
TO 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N62W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N62W TO 21N65W TO PUERTO
RICO.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN
50W AND 73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N32W 22N34W 16N40W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 22N20W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY
THE LINE FROM 28N30W TO 20N23W TO 20N14W TO 32N11W TO 27N20W TO
28N30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N54W TO 24N64W... TO
A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N71W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM 27N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N90W...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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