[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS
OF 10 TO 16 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 17N36W TO
10N33W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND
38W. MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 12N WITH HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
19N16W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N23W TO 10N30W TO
09N40W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 09N59W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS E
ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS N TO THE SW GULF. THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 29N TO THE FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO 18N94W SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...ACROSS FL...TO THE TX GULF
COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SW GULF AND THE NW GULF THROUGH TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR GUATEMALA SUPPORTS
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N70W DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER N COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED N OF 18N W OF 72W...AND
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY LATER
TODAY AS THE RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS.

...HISPANIOLA...
MODERATE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN US COAST ALONG 72W SUPPORTS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N48W HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N73W AND THEN CONTINUES W ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A
WEAKNESS IS OBSERVED IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 29N56W TO 20N58W. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N59W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. FARTHER SOUTH...A 1012
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N53W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW. CONVECTION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE N OF 28N W OF 75W OVER THE W ATLC AS A TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE SE US COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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