[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N16W 3N27W 2N35W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER THE SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-
8W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 11W-18W...AND WITHIN 150 NM
N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND EXTENDS AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE IS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG TO 27N88W 23N91W TO 19N94W. A
WARM FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 LOW E TO 29N84W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC N OF TAMPA BAY
TO VERO BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W TO 25N87W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 85W TO OVER S FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 90W. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL TO SE GULF. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NAPLES FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING SE OF THE AREA.
RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE W THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS TO
70W THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT N
OF 16N W OF 80W WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING IN. A
SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
AND SPREADING E INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 19N W OF 86W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO NICARAGUA NEAR
14N83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING DENSE TO MEDIUM SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
LIGHT SMOKE N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E
HONDURAS THU AND STALL THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL
AND SHORT LIVED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N46W
ALONG 28N55W TO 27N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N71W
THEN JUST N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO THE FRONT W OF 75W TO ACROSS S
FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
FRONT TO 32N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN
MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N25W ALONG 23N37W TO 19N69W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A
WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO
W ATLC LATE TODAY. THE NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO
PALM BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU
NIGHT THEN FROM 32N63W ALONG 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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